As published in the Immigration Daily on June 21, 2018.
Democrats and liberal minded people hope that the child separation issue at the border will be the tipping point against Mr. Trump as the nation recoiled at images of crying children and children behind wire fences. They hope that this time the nation as a whole sees Donald Trump for what he really is – a mendacious accidental president who will stoop to the very abyss to get what he wants. That mendacity was on full display and exposed by his finally signing an executive order on June 20, 2018, halting the separation of migrant families and the ripping of children from the arms of their parents after a string of lies as to who was to blame, why he couldn’t do it, and why Congress had to act to protect them as part of a huge immigration bill bent on curbing U. S. immigration. Yet that unfortunately is a forlorn hope.
Mr. Trump once remarked that he could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone and he wouldn’t lose voters. The period of time from now to the midterms is 4 ½ months, sufficient time in his eyes and those of the Republican Party for voters to forget what they would likely call his “hiccup.” They are banking on short memory of the public. The news cycle is ever churning with new news and issues appear and disappear in the flash of an eye. That is even more so with this president who dominates the media waves almost every day with his twitters and other messages. Who remembers Charlottesville? Who will remember Marjorie Stoneman Douglas? Mr. Trump is like a magician diverting the audience’s eyes while working the other hand.
The polls paint an alarming picture to his opposition. Trump’s job approval rating in early June was 45% in Gallup polling, tying his personal high. This was roughly equivalent to the approval rating of Presidents Obama, Clinton, Reagan, and Carter in their second year. His approval rating among black men at the end of April rose from 11% to 22% according to a Reuters poll. Among the total black community, it also nearly doubled from 8.9% to 16.5%. Why? It could well be because the black unemployment rate is hitting record lows – in May, that rate fell to 5.9%, the lowest since the government started keeping track in 1972. Many Asian-Americans, especially small business owners, are supporting Mr. Trump as they feel that the current business climate is heading in a positive direction and 87% believe that the new tax law will have a positive effect on the economy.
Hillary Clinton won the majority of votes in America, yet lost the election. In the midterms, the Republicans behind Trump do not have to win the majority, just enough in the various states (many of them red) to win the elections. What do conservatives and the base of white Americans adore about Mr. Trump? They love his appointing of conservative federal judges including the Supreme Court justice Neil Gorsuch and cannot wait until one of the more elderly justices like Ruth Ginsburg or Anthony Kennedy retire or pass away; the new tax law that gives benefits to most in the red states; the constantly chipping away of Obamacare; the massive rescinding of regulations across the board, including banking and the environment; the emphasis on restructuring trade deals with allies and foes alike; his support of law enforcement even in the most questionable circumstances against the minorities; his crackdown on illegal immigration as a whole; and most of all, for the stock market’s rise to unprecedented highs and the record low unemployment rate in the country.
And so for those who would celebrate the comeuppance of Mr. Trump and think that Americans will carry the image of children living in tent cities behind wire fences to the polls in November, think of this article as the dash of cold water in the face. Democrats and liberal minded people must in the vernacular “put the pedal to the metal” and get out the vote to win the midterms rather than relying on incidents like the child separation issue to carry the tide. They should also not become more confident if polling numbers reflect better circumstances for the Democrats as many Trump followers do not acknowledge their support in public, only in the ballot box.