Category: News

As published in the Immigration Daily on March 2, 2017.

You cannot continually demonize undocumented immigrants and then turn around to legalize them. The math does not compute. Even as Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama attempted legalization, they constantly praised the virtues of the undocumented. Both presidents were frustrated by the intractability of the Republican Party. Now it is the Republican Party on steroids owning both houses of Congress and President Trump’s own rabid backers poised to stop any mass legalization program. The President’s musings at the luncheon with television news anchors at the White House before his address to Congress on February 28th that he is open to providing legal status to millions of undocumented immigrants as long as there is compromise on both sides cannot be taken seriously given the background, his continual speeches on the undesirability of undocumented immigrants, and his Executive Order on January 25, 2017, “Enhancing Public Safety in the Interior of the United States” targeting all the undocumented for removal, not just violent criminals. That prioritizes the removal of persons convicted of a criminal act, persons with unresolved criminal cases, and those who have committed acts that constitute a chargeable criminal offense, thus including everyone who has made an illegal entry since such is a crime under Section 275(a) of the Immigration and Nationality Act. Reports are that after Mr. Trump’s comments, aides rushed to quickly to alert the Svengali- like Steve Bannon, chief strategist, and Stephen Miller, the senior policy advisor – both strident anti-immigration personages and chief writers of his address – and the remarks or any hints of them were not included in Mr. Trump’s speech.

The speech itself was virulently anti-immigrationist, like a hammer in a velvet glove, rather than the strident speeches that the President is known for making, e.g. Inaugural address. He talked of the U. S. standing united in condemning hate and evil in all of its forms, especially mentioning threats targeting the Jews, but only said “as well as last week’s shooting in Kansas City” which would puzzle anyone not already familiar with the ethnic hate shooting of 2 engineers from India by a white man last week because of Mr. Trump’s short shrift, non-recitation of facts, and giving the wrong location as the shooting occurred in Olathe, Kansas, a city 20 miles from Kansas City. Mr. Trump had been criticized for not saying anything before, and so gave short shrift to answer his challengers, but no detail as such did not fit his narrative that immigrants are to be seen as perpetrators of violence, not the victims. He later presented four Americans in the galleries as the victims of undocumented immigrants whose son and 2 husbands were killed by illegal immigrants. He demonized the undocumented as creating an environment of lawless chaos, as the cause of American families losing jobs, income, or loved ones, and that by enforcing the immigration laws, his administration would raise wages, help the unemployed, save billions of dollars, and make our communities safer for everyone.

So even though the facts on criminality by the undocumented do not bear him out, Mr. Trump’s demonizing and elaborating on anecdotal situations even to the point of bringing in four victims for his address hardens even further the sentiment against undocumented immigrants and would make legalization much harder. Mr. Trump has been accused many times of feinting and trying to confuse and distract his critics, and his remarks at the afternoon luncheon must be seen as one of those occasions. If by some chance he was sincere in that moment, he has already built himself a box from which he would find it very difficult to extricate himself.

For the record, undocumented immigrants are incarcerated much less than the native-born population of this country. In a 2010 survey, 1.6% of immigrant males the ages of 18-39 were incarcerated compared to 3.3% of native-born Americans. Although Steve Bannon’s publication, Breitbart, offers a figure of almost 37% of undocumented immigrants in federal prison, the overall federal prison population is only about 10% of the overall prison population, and the overwhelming majority of undocumented immigrants (76% in 2013) are there for immigration violations and not other criminal acts. The New York Times article on January 26, 2017, “Contrary to Trump’s Claims, Immigrants Are Less Likely to Commit Crimes”, says that “Analyses of census data from 1980 through 2010 show that among men ages 18 to 49, immigrants were one-half to one-fifth as likely to be incarcerated as those born in the United States.”

Immigrants are the lifeblood of a country’s maintaining itself in a leading position in the world where the native population is unable to reproduce fast enough. The Japanese are the prime example of a country that has fallen into stagflation for this reason. The German Chancellor has attempted to avoid the situation through importing vast numbers of refugees and will be seen in the future as a visionary who saved the future for her country although Germany is now going through the throes of change. In this country where immigrants are a huge life force – 3 million immigrants in the city of New York alone – mass deportation of the undocumented would leave hollowed out cities of empty apartments and houses and virulent crime. The immigrant population is generally younger than the general population, and will be a huge part of propping up the Social Security system for retiring baby boomers, the largest class of retirees ever. As stated in our article, “Is the Wreckage Fast Approaching for the Nation under Trump?”, Immigration Daily, 2/6/17, as of 2012, 95.5% of the 11,000,000+ undocumented immigrants living in the U. S. were under 55 years of age; in 2014 there were 6.6 million U. S. citizens living in households with undocumented immigrants, of which 5.7 million were under age 18 and 865,000 age 18 or over; and a 2016 study on the economic impacts of removing undocumented workers found that a policy of mass deportation would immediately reduce the nation’s GDP by 1.4% and ultimately by 2.6%, and reduce cumulative GDP over 10 years by $4.7 trillion.

Whether he knows it or not, President Trump will need the undocumented immigrants to help him achieve many of the lofty goals that he stated in his address. The initiatives all cost money; he will find that some of the sources that he is counting on will not produce due to flawed assumptions; and he will need all the revenue that he can obtain – even from the undocumented.

As published in the Immigration Daily on February 6, 2017. 

As we sit at the beginning of the third week of a Donald Trump Twitter presidency, the signs are already here of a failing presidency – an embattled president, political capital fading in the outrage over early incautious policy decisions, an economic scheme promising wrack and ruin, expected mind-boggling future deficits, anticipated brain drain, loss of business, tourism, and post secondary education dollars from foreign-born due to restrictive or harsh appearing immigration policies, expected departure of large numbers of the undocumented, and a predictably future plunging stock market. The makeover of America has begun to the detriment of the country.

America as a beacon of liberty and moral referee disappeared with the January 27, 2017, Trump Executive Order, “Protecting the Nation from Foreign Terrorists Entry into the United States,” freezing refugee admissions for 120 days, barring for at least 90 days entries, visas (nonimmigrant and immigrant) along with all other immigration benefits to nationals of Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen, with a further call for adding other countries onto the list that do not comply in giving information to the U. S. on their nationals. Ex-New York City mayor and Trump confidant Rudy Giuliani admitted on Fox news that the Executive Order was a backdoor Muslim ban. Most analysts have agreed that the ban is superfluous as the U. S. has not been attacked by refugees from any of the 7 listed countries and counterproductive as dangerous for American armed forces, especially in Iraq, as it fits the ISIS narrative that the U. S. cannot be trusted and discourages assistance and cooperation from Iraqis and others.

The stock market is set to plunge drastically as soon as investors begin to feel the consequences of Mr. Trump’s present and anticipated actions. The market has been up since the election with investors banking on less regulation on companies releasing growth, repatriation of large profits that U. S. companies such as GE, Microsoft and Pfizer have kept abroad to escape taxes, the unlocking of huge infrastructure projects and deals, and reduction of waste in Washington. Unfortunately a large decline in the market is coming as the Trump administration has shown its hand in a spending wish list on defense, restrictive immigration measures, infrastructure, etc. while preparing to propose reductions in taxes to the wealthy, corporations and estates, and ignite trade wars around the globe. The Republicans are also hard-pressed to replace Obamacare and fulfill Mr. Trump’s recent pledge that his substitute for the Affordable Care Act would insure more people at lower cost. His recent actions in approving a botched SEAL team raid in Yemen, threatening Iran over its recent missile test, and reportedly giving Syrian rebels heavier weaponry foreshadow more use of military might and the nation’s money than in the Obama years. In the same way that all other administrations have learned that the people of the nation cannot have huge spending and large tax cuts at the same time, the Trump administration will soon realize along with the rest of the country that the promises on spending and cutting taxes cannot be fulfilled without ruinously running the Treasury printing presses and releasing the twin specters of rampant inflation and gargantuan budget deficits.

Multiple studies have shown that the undocumented bring a net benefit to the country and yet Mr. Trump believes that it would be a triumph to drive them all out. If large numbers left or were driven from the U. S., the economy would tank as there would be no Americans willing to take on many of their jobs even at higher wages, the U. S. population would grow older immediately, large swaths of U. S. cities would begin to look like Detroit with abandoned houses pock-marking the landscape, municipalities would experience declining revenues and shrinking tax bases, and there would be many less people to stimulate the economy in all areas as the young and middle-aged and not the elderly are the population groups that drive spending. That is the reason why an audience between ages 18-49 is the most sought after for TV networks and the Nielsens. Statistically as of 2012, 95.5% of the 11,000,000+ undocumented immigrants living in the U. S. were under 55 years of age with the vast majority (85.9%) between 18-54 years, prime ages for establishing families and purchasing cars, homes, and all the other accouterments of living. Besides them, in 2014 there were 6.6 million U. S. citizens living in households with undocumented immigrants, of which 5.7 million were under age 18 and 865,000 were age 18 and over. Deporting or terrifying millions of this population to leave the country would leave a huge vacuum for goods and services nationwide. A 2016 study on the economic impacts of removing unauthorized immigrant workers found that a policy of mass deportation would immediately reduce the nation’s GDP by 1.4 percent and ultimately by 2.6 percent, and reduce cumulative GDP over 10 years by $4.7 trillion (Ryan Edwards and Francesc Ortega, “The Economic Impacts of Removing Unauthorized Immigrant Workers,” Center for American Progress, 9/21/16, https://www.americanprogress.org/iss…grant-workers/.)

Mr. Trump has already started down this road by prioritizing enforcement against most undocumented immigrants in his January 25, 2017, Executive Order “Enhancing Public Safety in the Interior of the United States” since illegal entry is a crime under INA §275(a) and the order targets anyone who has been convicted of “any” criminal offense, been charged with “any” criminal offense where the charge is not been resolved, or committed acts that constitute a chargeable criminal offense. In terminating the Obama administration’s Priority Enforcement Program (PEP) and reinstating the Secure Communities Program, it appears that we are back to a time in which the original intent of Secure Communities to protect communities from violent criminals had been statistically shown to be secondary to the detention and deportation of aliens, many of whom were caught for minor misdemeanors or civil offenses. The Executive Order’s use of the word “any” is unambiguous, and the targeting will mean immigration holds and detainers by ICE. Whether coincidentally or not, the chief immigration judge of the Executive Office for Immigration Review on January 31, 2017, changed the order of priorities for rushing cases through the system and placed “all detained individuals” as the topmost priority of the immigration courts.

This is indeed the beginning of a sad time for America. Undoubtedly the involved local law and immigration enforcement agencies and immigration courts will struggle initially to make sense of Mr. Trump’s actions which will certainly test the humanitarian instincts of many, but once the dust settles, we will unfortunately be looking at a much meaner America, and for most, a much poorer one.

As published in the Immigration Daily on January 23, 2017.

In the wake of signing some executive orders on the day of his inauguration, January 20, 2017, to show that he means business, President Trump is preparing mass signings of executive orders (some say over 200) during the next weeks expected to impact the work of many agencies, including in the field of immigration. From comments that he and his nominee for Attorney General, Jeff Sessions, had made, it was expected that Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) would be one of the first to go. The fate of the 700,000+ who have received the benefits of the program was then muddled after the expected abolishment, with Mr. Trump saying in his December Time Magazine man of the year interview, “We’re going to work something out that’s going to make people happy and proud… They got brought here at a very young age, they’ve worked here, they’ve gone to school here. Some of them were good students. Some have wonderful jobs. And they’re in never-never land because they don’t know what’s going to happen”, and Mr. Sessions, “Fundamentally, we need to fix this immigration system… We’ve been placed in a bad situation. I really would urge us all to work together. I would try to be supportive, to end the illegality and put us in a position where we can wrestle with how to handle these difficult, compassionate decisions.”

Reince Priebus, White House Chief of Staff, exposed the thinking of Mr. Trump and his team in an interview on Fox News with Chris Wallace on Sunday, January 22, when directly asked whether among the executive actions that Trump plan to sign today and this week, “Specifically, is he going to undo DACA, the Obama executive action to defer deportation for the 700,000 so-called DREAMers who were brought into this country illegally…, and dodging that by saying, “I think we’re going to work with House and Senate leadership as well to get a long-term solution on that issue,” but after being asked the follow-up question, “So, you won’t undo DACA until –“ saying that “I’m not going to make any commitments to you, but I’ve, you know I’m obviously foreshadowed there a little bit.” So if the idea takes hold and legislative relief is passed, will it be a bill that has not yet been written or will Mr. Trump support the already written bipartisan bill, the BRIDGE (Bar Removal of Individuals Who Dream and Grow Our Economy) Act which would give DACA-like protection and employment for 3 years. The other piece of written legislation by Republican Sen. Jeff Flake would give similar protections under the SAFE (Securing Active and Fair Enforcement) Act for 2 years, but has the unfair anti-immigrant feature that any alien arrested on charges for an excludable offense would be detained throughout the entire period of removal proceedings even if cleared of the charges. In other words, someone’s spiteful false complaint would be enough to get an innocent alien detained and deported.

In the end, some palatable solution must be worked out for the Dreamers and all others in similar position who did not apply for the benefits of DACA. Besides the economic benefits of having bright people that the U. S. has educated work to raise this country during the 30-50 years of productive work life that they have left, the threat of having such a populace lose all hope and some listen to the siren song of others and be persuaded to channel their aggressions in acts of violence must be a consideration to the Trump administration.

Although there will undoubtedly be many immigration changes for the worse in the near future, there now appears to be hope for the DACA beneficiaries and their ilk to gain relief under a Trump administration.